If you're like me, it’s almost as much fun to follow the game of player movement as it is to follow the game of baseball (in my case, probably more so).  To that end, it only seems logical that we build a foundation of what we know to be true regarding your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays before we get too deep into speculation about what we may or may not wish to be true.  Now, let me offer the disclaimer that we have all seen the untradeable traded and the insane deal made - so nothing is 100% certain.  But there is a great deal which has a probability that approaches 100% certainty.

We do “know,” for instance, that Alexis Rios will be in RF next season. Ditto for Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas, Aaron Hill, and Lyle Overbay in their respective positions.  Troy Glaus, while perhaps marginally less secure, is still a seeming lock to return thanks to various considerations that we are all aware exist.  There is a similar amount of certainty for the pitching staff, but we will reserve that discussion for next time.  So, that leaves four key points to address on the offensive side of the game: catcher, shortstop, left field, and the bench.

Catcher

I’ll start with a look behind the plate.  I begin here because it seems to me it is the one position least likely to hold surprises for Jays fans.  The oft-maligned Greg Zaun is the incumbent starter and the still-green Curtis Thigpen figures to be the back-up.  I have noticed a tendency among the more opinionated of Jays fans to demand an upgrade on Zaun with rhetoric which suggests he brings nothing to the team on either side of the game.  This turns out not to be true.  Zaun, over the last 3-4 seasons, has been a top-10 or 12 catcher in virtually every offensive category.  He does have some well noted defensive shortcomings.  But as a hitter, unless you entertain illusions of .luring Jorge Posada out of NY, he’s about as reliable a hitter as you are going to be able to find next season.

The one possible exception to this is Padre Michael Barrett.  Coming into this season, he had welded a potent bat in three consecutive seasons.  The downside to this, from the Jays perspective, is that Posada - who will almost certainly remain a Yankee - and Barrett are the only two catchers available with any reliable offensive history.  What that translates into is a nice payday for Barrett despite this year’s struggles . . . and that payday will undoubtably come in some other city.  Bottom line?  Zaun and Thigpen are almost certainly going to be your catching duo next season - and they are unlikely to be a weakness.

Bench

The second matter that needs addressing that I want to touch on is bench strength. This one is somewhat complicated because what happens here flows in large measure from how the remaining starting positions at LF and SS are addressed. But I do not propose to discuss the entire bench.  It’s a given that Thigpen is on the bench, that Reed Johnson will be the weak half of a LF platoon at best, and that we have no shortage of potential middle infield backups.  What we do not have is a reliable long-term alternative to step in should Glaus go down for any length of time.  I’m sorry to tell you, JP, but the Hector Lunas of the world are simply not acceptable in that role.

We need to sign a player who does not have illusions of being a full time player from the group which includes Aaron Boone, Geoff Blum, Eric Hinske, Russ Branyan, or Jeff Crillo.  Failing that  we need to make a trade for such a player.  Whomever we acquire and however he is acquired, it will be a significant error if such a player is not on our 25 man roster on opening day.

Shortstop

And then there’s the shortstop position.  There exists a great divide among Jays fans, one that will no doubt get wider now that hot stove time is bearing down on us, over whether John McDonald’s defensive prowess is enough to compensate for his offensive offense.  Impressive statistical analysis adorned with acronyms many of us can’t decipher are brought to bare proving that this is so.  I confess to being no high-level statistician when it comes to defensive metrics - but instinctively I cannot accept that the proposition is true.  That said, are they true enough that we need not give attention to bringing in a good offensive SS with at least average defense?  My answer to that is this - the market is too good for us not to.

I know that may come as a shock to some of you to hear the market for SS described as a buyer's market, but I believe that it is. Consider, twenty major league teams will absolutely not be in the market for a starting SS this winter.  Of the ten which remain, we can eliminate Tampa Bay because they have a stud SS prospect coming soon, we can eliminate Minnesota and Houston because they have limited resources and other more important priorities.  There is no indication the Royals plan to invest there, though they might, and other than wild rumors about A-Rod, there's been nothing out of the Chicago Cubs rumour mill about the SS position.  But we will include those two as wild cards for the sake of discussion.

So, if you count Toronto, you have five major players in the SS market (the Tigers, White Sox, Cardinals, and Giants being the others) and for those 5-7 jobs, there are 8 potential solutions, nine if you count Omar Vizquel as the Giants are reportedly doing. Ten if you somehow think Caesar Izturus will get you by.  Let’s look at one hypothetical, just for example:

Cardinals deal for Jack Wilson
Tigers deal for Edger Renteria
Giants re-sign Vizquel (crazy I know, but that’s the rumour)
White Sox sign Eckstein
Royals take a cheap flyer on Uribe
Cubs trade for Tejada

Where’s Yomuri Giants FA Tomohira Nioka you ask?  Where indeed.  Now it is certainly possible that when the music stops, the only guys left are Uribe, Izturus or Vizquel and Felipe Lopez.  In which case the argument for sticking with McDonald gets considerably better.  But as long as Nioka, Renteria, or Wilson are still available, you have to be in the market.  And all this doesn’t give any consideration to the more unorthodox solutions I mentioned last time.

Nioka: he'll be playing for somebody next year...

Left Field

That leaves a left fielder, someone with the simple responsibility of having good offense from the position and more importantly filling the team's crying need for more offense against RHP.  There are two possible scenarios here.  One is that you pony up and take a run at a marquee player with a left-handed bat such as Bonds, or Griffey, or Dunn, or (in the unlikely event he were to become available) Abreu.  You probably have to also include Japanese slugger Kosuke Fukudome here as well since, though something of an enigma, it would certainly be a high profile signing.  Of these, I think we can safely conclude that only Fukudome is anything more than an incredible long shot.

The other far more likely possibility is that you find a mid-level bat with good splits against RHP to platoon with Johnson (assuming Johnson isn’t non-tendered - but if he is, his replacement would be a guy just like him making less money such as Bobby Kielty).  The possibilities here include in-house option Adam Lind, potential free agent Matt Stairs, and free agent outfielders Shawn Green, Geoff Jenkins, Trot Nixon, Eric Hinske,. Ryan Klesko, Luis Gonzalez, and the injury-prone Cliff Floyd.  We can safely eliminate the fragile Floyd, and the declining Klesko and Nixon from consideration.  Also of interest is the fact that Green, Jenkins, and Gonzalez are virtually the same player at this point.  Except that Gonzalez has the disadvantage of being 6-7 years older.  So we’ll eliminate him as well.

We have to take note that Matt Stairs is more friendly to resigning if he can be guaranteed significant playing time.  I think that between spelling three outfield positions, DH, and 1B, he can get plenty of work.  I also think that there are enough players like him out there that the odds of him parlaying an admittedly great season into a full time job at 40 are relatively low.  Given that, I suggest that the odds of him re-signing with the Jays are quite good.  If he were to re-sign with the Jays, I think the team could assure him he would start the season as the LF v. RHP for as long as he preformed at that high level.  If the wear of playing in 80% of the games wore him down as the season wore on, then that would naturally lead to a transition to Adam Lind.

Unfortunately, we have no way of gaging the Jays interest in going after Fukudome, but it would certainly be a move that would get fans buzzing.  Either of these two solutions - Fukudome or a Stairs-transitioning-to-Lind model would be something fans could look forward to.  If you assume, for the sake of discussion, that both these men sign elsewhere, then you can either choose to throw Lind out there and see once and for all what he’s got, or acquire a safety net in the form of Green or Jenkins.  Either man should be available at a reasonable price.  An argument can be made that Lind has shown enough to indicate he could do for your team as much as either of those players could.  An argument could also be made that he hasn’t proven he can do that.  I’m not sure there is a “right answer” to this “Plan B” scenario.  The only way to know is to pick one, cross your fingers and see what hindsight tells you.

In the final analysis, the offensive upgrade this team needs will come far more from a revival among players we already have than from new acquisitions. A full season from Glaus, a return to healthy form for Overbay and a solution to the enigma of Vernon Wells are all indispensable.  I don’t include Johnson in this because his role is to hit lefties and even in this regrettable season, he did that.  Adding to that a meaningful LH bat, whether it be that of our own youngster Lind or an expensive Japanese import or something in between is certainly a factor which must be addressed.  Do all that, and your only remaining question is - what of the shortstop position?

And only God and JP knows the answer to that one.

-- WillRain