Most Jays fans, like it or lump it, have probably come to the conclusion that John McDonald has been awarded the starting SS job based on the recent 2-year $3.8 million contract extension awarded to him by JP Ricciardi.  That being the case, it's time for a detailed analysis of J-Mac's worth to the club with all facets of his game taken into consideration.   While he does play terrific defense, his bat is an incredible liability.   Just how much of a liability?  Let’s find out.

Here's what the numbers say.

J-Mac has a 5.04 Range Factor (RF). The middle of the road qualifying SS is Jimmy Rollins. He's got a RF of 4.43.

In a full season Mac would make approximately 705.6 plays - we'll say that's in 140 games (140 games * 5.04 RF = 705.6 plays). Rollins, the middle of the road SS, would make approximately (140 games * 4.43 RF) = 620.2 plays.

So compared to the average SS, Mac would make 80 plays more a season. Now, this is debatable in itself; about 50-60 innings ago J-Mac was at 660 or so innings and at that point his RF was 5.20.  This means that his range factor has decreased slightly with more playing time, which is an expectable occurance.  For that sake of comparison, RF works like batting average (BA).  E.g. over a full season Rios could start the year hitting .350-360, but by May or June it'll be .340; by September it'll be closer to 300-310. More opportunities over a full season means it's bound to decrease. 

Gold Glover wielding a wiffle bat?

How do we determine WHERE Mac's RF SHOULD BE?  Well, I like to use ZR.  See, if a player gets to more balls they'll have a better chance of getting more outs.  Mac's ZR is .873.  If he qualified (which he doesn't) he'd be third.  Vizquel is at .893 ZR, despite a lower RF (Barry Zito, and I'm willing to guess a couple other Giants pitchers, have a bad FB:GB rate which means he makes fewer plays).  Reyes has a similar ZR to Mac, but a much weaker RF (4.13), so it wouldn't be fair to use either of those guys.  But just keep in mind that despite a high RF, it doesn't mean he's getting to all of the balls.  His ZR has been decreasing with more playing time.   While I'd expect him to stay near the top, he isn't the best defensive SS in the majors, but he is up there. Another problem with RF is that assists and putouts are the basis for RF, so if Hill tosses McDonald an easy throw and Mac gets the out at first it counts as 2 outs on one play.   That’s another reason range factor is a poor stat for our argument.

All of this means that McDonald would make about 30-50 more plays over a season than a middle of the road SS.  I realize I said more earlier, but I’m also assuming that over a full season he won’t be as good defensively as fatigue took its toll.

Here's the other problem with that line of thinking: RF is based off the number of plays an infielder makes.  What it DOESN'T take into account is whether or not a pitching staff can artificially inflate that # with groundball pitchers.  Being a groundball heavy staff, RF is artificially inflated for Mac because he needs to make more plays a game.  It also doesn't take into account whether or not there's grass/turf which speed/slows the ball.   While it seems like Mac makes a significant number of plays above and beyond a middle of the road SS, it's not necessarily the case.

I'm sure those of you are thinking "Well, since we're a groundball heavy staff, doesn't that mean we SHOULD have the best defensive SS?"  At one level, you're right.  We should have a solid D, but the question is, at what cost?  There's a point where offense is worth MORE than defense, and defense is worth MORE than offense.  If either one is so bad that it drags down the positives, the player loses his value.

For instance, if Adam Dunn played CF, he could arguably be the best offensive CF. But since he can't play D, his defensive value negates his offensive value, which is why he's moved to LF/1B/DH. The same things works with the LACK of a bat.  If a player's bat is so bad that he can't hit in a regular lineup, you simply can't start him.

Alright, so now let's look at offensive production:

The middle of the road qualifying SS are Brendan Harris and Jack Wilson (12 and 13 out of 26 qualifying SS ranked by OPS).  For the sake of this argument I’m going to compare McDonald to Wilson.  Both have identical OPS, so I don't think it's unfair of me to use Wilson.  Wilson's line for the season is .289/.345/.417 for a .762 OPS. Macdonald's line is: .247/.271./325 for a .596 OPS.  I'll get into how much more valuable Wilson, the middle of the road SS, is in a minute.  Right now, I just want to point out that out of ALL SS's with the SAME number of ABs as Mac, Mac is the worst SS by 23 points of OPS (just behind a rookie who has the possibility to improve – something Mac has no chance of doing). The only SS with a lower OPS than Mac with 215 AB's is Everret, and his OPS is only 5 points below Mac's.  This is also Everret's worst year ever; he's normally a 650 or so OPS SS.

So now we know what we all feared - Mac is far and away the worst SS offensively in the game.  He's 166 OPS points behind a MIDDLE OF THE ROAD offensive starting SS.  But how much more valuable is Wilson offensively?

Let's assume Macdonald gets... 500 or so AB's. Not unreasonable for a starter over the course of a full season.  With a 271 OBP, Mac will reach base via hit, walk, error, etc. approximately 135.5 times. Wilson, the middle of the road guy will reach base approximately 172.5 times. So I'll round it up to 136 & 173 respectively.  The difference here is: Wilson, the average SS, will reach base approximately 37 times more than J-Mac.

Jack Wilson will reach base 37 more times, which is also the same amount of plays McDonald will make plays the average SS won't.  Here's the thing: while the majority of McDonald's base hits will only go for singles, Wilson's will typically go for doubles or triples.  McDonald is projected to have 18 doubles this year in 129 games, in fairness that's in fewer than 500 AB's.  So if in 333 he's projected to have 18, then in 500 he should have 27 doubles.  Whereas Wilson is projected to have 30 doubles, 10 HR (compared to 1).

The obvious thing you want to say is "Well, there doubles are similar, and if it's for 10 HR's then I'll take McDonald".  You might even say Mac will have more SB than Wilson.  That'd be a fair argument, but this is also a career year for Mac. The more games/AB's he has over the course of a season, the lower his OPS goes.  His sub 600 OPS?  Yep, they all came when he played more than 80 games or had 200 AB's. His 600+ OPS? Yep, most of them came with less than 100 AB's.  One season being the exception in Cleveland (2002).  In any event, the point I'm getting at is that over a full season, J-Mac wouldn't necessarily have a .596 OPS as he now does.  It's likely to be even lower than 570.  If that's the case, then he has around 20 (or less) doubles, gets 1 HR, and gets on base approximately 120 times (or less) over a full season.

It's not a bs argument either.  McDonald's never played a full season, so he'd be under more strain/stress and would put out weaker numbers as a result.  Plus, as I stated earlier, players number's go DOWN as the season continues.  So if he has a .579 or .596 OPS NOW, in 200-300 AB's, imagine how BAD that will be with 500?

To sum up:

McDonald probably makes anywhere from 45-60 defensive plays more than the average SS (and I think that number is even less since Mac won't make as many good plays as the season increases due to a tiring SS who has never played a full season...)  However, the average offensive SS could get on base approximately 50-60 more times (the 60 sounds higher than the math I used, but you have to assume Mac will be worse than the .579 OPS he’ll put up when playing a full season).  On top of this, while most of Mac's OBP results from reaching one base, most of the average shortstops would have a MUCH higher total bases stat, thanks to hitting more doubles, and more HR's. So while Mac gets his singles as his only way of getting on base, the other SS will get doubles and HR's, which are obviously more valuable.  In addition to this, moderate extra-base power from a SS hitting near or at the bottom of the order makes the lineup deeper and forces pitchers to work harder, creating more run-scoring opportunities for the team.  So on top of being an upgrade to the SS position, it's almost like a small offensive boost to the rest of the lineup.

The other question you have to ask yourself is whether J-Mac's plays result in saving runs.  Sure, Mac has the 4th or 5th best range of a qualifying SS (and he doesn't qualify), but how many of the extra plays he makes will result in runs saved?  There's no way of knowing.  However, if the SS gets an extra base hit, ie. double, or a HR, it's extremely likely that an extra run will score. When J-Mac hits his single, the run is not guaranteed.  Also, when J-Mac has to sacrifice himself via the bunt, giving up an out to move over a runner (with the entire infield defense EXPECTING a bunt, thus making it EVEN HARDER to move a runner up), the offensive SS is more likely to get a single, double, or even a HR which results in no out given up, the runner advanced and the SS on base, and more opportunities for the rest of the lineup to drive in more runs.

I'll let you come up with your own conclusions.  I don't think an extra 30-40 outs made by J-Mac is worth the 50-70+ total times on base and an extra 75-95 or so total bases the average SS will have over a full season.  All things considered, J-Mac's recent contract extension by no means indicates that our long-standing SS woes will be resolved in '08.

-- Twitchy