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Well, Jays fans, here we are. Stuck in a Bizzaro world where being the worst offensive shortstop imaginable is rewarded with almost $2 million a year and a seeming lock on the starting job for the next two years. Perhaps it is only a futile rage against the machine to whine and moan about that unhappy state of affairs and delude ourselves with unrealistic fantasies of a sudden change of direction on the part of JP Richardi that would lead to a happier circumstance.
However, given the depressing state of the real world when it comes to the shortstop position in Toronto, perhaps there’s something to be said for unrealistic fantasies. So let me just take a moment to turn over every proverbial rock and see if there is something underneath that might persuade our resolute General Manager to make a change of plans.
But before I do, let me just acknowledge those of you out there who are smiling right now about the signing of John McDonald. I know you’re out there. Consumed with a fervor for gold glove defense and convinced that a powerful lineup can afford a light hitting shortstop with great defense. I can only assume that you’ve looked at McDonald’s .586 OPS for this season, or his .590 career OPS and thought to yourself “How bad can it be?”
Well, let be clear - very VERY bad.
I won’t try to trump Twitchy’s work in demonstrating the relative value of excellent defense versus a reasonable bat, but I do need to bring to the forefront one other important aspect: the more McDonald plays, the worse he gets. When he got the full time starter job on July 28, McDonald was hitting .267 and had a .637 OBP. Since that point, he’s hitting .208 and his OBP is .508.
Read that again. 5. 0. 8.
And that’s not an isolated incident. In 2006 he hit .211 after the break. In fact, in every season going back to 2001, if McDonald broke 200 AB, his plate performance crashed in the latter part of the season. So, to put it nicely: SNAP OUT OF IT! Not only is he about as bad offensively as it gets, but the more you run him out there, the worse he gets. It staggers the imagination to consider what he might do next September with 450 at bats behind him.
Now, with that out of the way, let me first present to you, team by team, every possible solution to the problem before us. Realistic or ideal? Not in every case. This will first be simply an attempt to mention every possible candidate including the in-house options. Free agents listed with their 2007 team. Later I’ll look at the pros and cons of the more desirable players mentioned.
Toronto - John McDonald, Russ Adams, Rey Olmedo, Hector Luna
New York Yankees - Wilson Betimint
Baltimore - Miguel Tejada
Tampa Bay - Brendan Harris, Ben Zobrist, Reid Brignac
Chicago White Sox - Jose Uribe, Alex Cintron
Detroit - Omar Infante
Kansas City - Angel Berroa
LA Angels - Orlando Cabrera, Chone Figgins, Erik Aybar, Brandon Wood, Maicer Izturus
Texas - Joaquin Arias
Atlanta - Edger Renteria, Yunel Esobar, Brent Lillibridge
Washington - Felipe Lopez, Christian Guzman
St Louis - David Eckstein
Houston - Adam Everett, Mark Loretta
Pittsburgh - Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturus, Freddie Sanchez
Milwaukee - Bill Hall
San Francisco - Omar Vizquel
Colorodo - Clint Barmes, Kaz Matsui
Japan - Tomohiro Nioka
35 names is way too much to work with...so lets start by eliminating some folks.
We will cross off the guys who’s offensive upgrade is not sufficient to be worth the effort to obtain them and tamper with the makeup of the team. We will also drop the guys who have a poor defensive reputation and are only mediocre offensively, as we can assume JP did not overpay for good defense so that he could go out and replace it with bottom-shelf work. I will also drop prospects not ready for the majors since our problem is an immediate one.
That narrows the list to a more manageable 17 players:
Russ Adams, Wilson Betemit, Miguel Tejada, Jose Uribe, Orlando Cabrera, Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturus, Edgar Renteria, Yuniel Escobar, Brent Lillibridge, Felipe Lopez, Christian Guzman, David Eckstein, Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez, Bill Hall, Tomohiro Nioka
One final filter is to separate the contenders into two categories - those players who have established their big league creds, and those for whom some uncertainty remains.
Renteria
Figgins
Guzman
Tejada
Sanchez
Wilson
Cabrera
Hall
M. Izturus
Eckstien
Uribe
Lopez
(ranked according to 2007 OPS if you are wondering)
Adams
Nioka
Escobar, Lillibridge
Betemit
Now, many of these players have both attractive points and strikes against them, but since the younger guys are more uncertain, it only seems right to start with them. Which I will do later. But just to get you warmed up, here’s a look at the one practical in-house solution:
Russ Adams - Hot, isn’t he? Wouldn’t it be nice if he’s regained the offense he had during his first 162 major league games? Wouldn’t it be simply fabulous if he could, between now and the end of spring training, work out his throwing mechanic and provide an internal option with one distinct advantage - the appeal to JP’s ego that would come with seeing his first draft pick make good after all? Yeah, I know I know, but there is a tiny glimmer of hope there and when all the other options I will discuss here fail to come to fruition, it may be our only hope - so cling to it as long as you can.
[end part one]
So, now we have before us 16 possibilities, what shall we make of them?
Tomo Nioka - Put this guy on the final list. His power can likely be estimated to fall by half if other Japanese imports are any indication, and you can never be sure how their game will translate. But he seems certain to be a massive upgrade on J-Mac and can reportedly be had for a reasonable cost.
Yuniel Escobar and Brent Lilibridge - since Atlanta has come down from the lofty peaks of the days when it had an unlimited budget, the Braves have to look for ways to economize. Escobar has done all a rookie could do to make the Braves believe that he can step in for Renteria without any drop off in production. This affects what we will say about the starter later, but it also, in combination with the Braves settled situation at 2B, leads us to believe that the opportunity exists to pursue Brent Lillibridge. For a team like the Jays who might be looking for a lower profile score than Renteria, they could do worse than seeing if the Braves would bite on one of their young pitchers for him. Jason Frasor might be as good as any internal option they have for the closer role next year, for instance. I, for one, have a hard time believing Escobar would be available except as part of a package for a star-level player.
Wilson Betemit - Two key questions here, if not three. First, can Betimit play SS on a regular basis? Cal Ripkin was this big, but it’s certainly the exception for a man that tall to play the position regularly. Second, would the Yankees be inclined to trade him within the division if he is so capable? Third, what is his true long term offensive potential? He has both notable power, and also a nice set of averages in his past....one would hope that if he were a regular on is team, he could find a way to do both for you. Just doing what he did in Atlanta in 2006 would be a happy outcome from your regular SS. An important consideration here is that, in his high average years, Betimit, a switch-hitter, was notably better vs. RHP than LHP. This is a not inconsiderable talent where the Jays offense is concerned. For a reasonable price, I would give this option a try IF I decided that Betemit could field the position for at least the next two years (until Glaus’ contract is up). Even if his BA doesn’t come around, an .800 OPS is certainly useful.
Edger Renteria - Since the Braves offered up Renteria in July, it’s clear he is available with the emergence of young Escobar. The question is, at what price? It is said that the Braves wanted Jon Garland, and if the Jays could, for a reasonable price, form the third corner of a three way with the two teams in question, they might very well avail themselves of Renteria’s services next year. It can be argued that at his age, he can only get worse, or that he struggled in the AL East before and would do so again, or that it’s never wise to spend much for the last year of a player’s contract. All those arguments have merit. But the bottom line is even if he only does what he did in Boston, it’s vast improvement over our current situation. And if you can add him now, you (and he) get a one year “trial run” to see if you want to sign him for more years beyond 2008.
Chone Figgins - We all know what a bat like his would do for the top of our order, especially with the uncertainty of Reed Johnson’s future. The question no one has answered to my satisfaction is this: Can he play SS every day? I confess, I do not know the answer to that.
Christian Guzman - Jim Bowden has certainly done crazier things than keeping two expensive shortstops on the major league roster. But logic would suggest that either he, or Lopez, would be gone before spring. Given that Guzman was very hot in his brief time in the field this year, and Lopez has struggled, and that both men are free agents after ‘08, I’m somewhat inclined to think Bowden will go with Guzman. Sure, Guzman was a weak bat when he signed and his performance in ‘07 was well above his career norms, still, I think the Washington GM will be suckered. In any case, this is one guy that I would NOT be enthused to see the Jays acquire. The downside is much larger than the upside.
Miguel Tejada - Defense is slipping, contract is huge, offense is not what it once was, though still top 10 among shortstops - no one here is a mass of more contradictions than Tejada. However, I am more than a little skeptical the O’s would even begin discussions within the division. I don’t think there is a story here. But if the money didn’t handicap us elsewhere, I wouldn’t object to him in a Jays uni either if the price were right. I have to believe, however, that another team would give more than we have to offer.
Freddie Sanchez - See Figgins. The same comments apply.
Jack Wilson - Now here, my gambling friend, is a real roll of the dice. Go ahead and ante up for Wilson, but which Wilson will you get? The one who flirts with an .800 OPS this year, just as he did in 2004? Or the guy who has otherwise not taken a serious run at .700? On the one hand, he’s shown he CAN hit well, on the other you have to ask why he's so inconsistent year to year? He’s not cheap, payroll wise, and I’d only gamble here if the Pirates were going to pick up at least half his contract.
Orlando Cabrera - Frankly, with Aybar so far being a no-show on offense and Wood ticketed for 3B, I don’t see him being available. If he were, he’d be an asset....but I simply don’t see it.
Bill Hall - there’s only one real question here - are the Brewers ready to deal? Hall is as clean and simple a solution to the SS problem as you are going to find, and he’s under a reasonable contract for the next three years. Still, the Brewers did not just plop him in CF and leave him alone this year. Tthey seem uncertain at times. Perhaps a young SP like Jessie Listch would persuade them to go in a different direction in this, the year of the CF in free agency. JP also seems to have a good rapport with the Brewers' front office, having pulled off a pair of notable trades in recent years.
Maicer Izturus - my comments here would differ little from what I said about his teammate, Chone Figgins.
David Eckstein - Here’s a guy who doesn’t require in-depth analysis. He is what he is: a little spark-plug guy with heart who’s a below average hitter but still miles ahead of McDonald. Perhaps he is the guy that JP fancies he’s found in McDonald, but J-Mac’s bat will never be even this good. I would not morn Eckstien’s signing, were it a reasonable price, but I should think we can do even better.
Juan Uribe - He seems too young for it, but he’s been in steady decline for three years. Players like this are always the hardest for me to dismiss because I have a hard time believing you can hit THAT well (.833 OPS) at 25 and then be a fringe player before 30. If he were cheap enough, you could do worse on a low-risk gamble. But I can’t build any enthusiasm for an attempt to acquire him.
Felipe Lopez - Here’s another example. How can you be a Silver Slugger at 25 and then go into a two-year decline that reduces you to hitting .650 in OPS? Still, apart from this season Lopez is at least league-average with the potential to regain the form that made him a top shelf SS just two years ago. He’s certainly worth a reasonable price to see if he can get it back. Of course i would be remiss not to mention that this would require JP to take a second look at a player he previously dismissed, something he doesn’t give the impression of being inclined to do often.
So, there you have it. While the free agent market is thin, there are in fact many options available to us that stand a good chance of being substantially better for the team than starting McDonald. And there are not a whole lot of teams in competition in this pool either. It would be, in my estimation, a blunder of colossal proportions to not add one of these players this off season.
-- WillRain |
