If I have heard it once, I’ve heard it a thousand times - the mournful wail of the Jays fan who is convinced that JP Ricciardi has been a comparative disaster in the draft room as opposed to the GMs who came before him.  “Look at Russ Adams!” they cry, often as if that’s all that needs to be said.

What goes unsaid is that the people who do this are making a patently uneven comparison. The final book on the drafting ability of any GM is not written until long after they have left the job.  You need another 3-5 years at least.  So what we have is a bunch of armchair analysts seeing the final result of the work of Gord Ash and comparing it to the Work in Progress of the current GM.  SO, I propose a showdown.  Let’s get in the Way-Back machine and return to the winter of 2000 as the winter meetings approched.  After all, it is at THAT point that Gord Ash had completed six drafts, as JP has now.  In other words, let’s examine Gord’s record at the same point in his career as JP and do a fair comparison.

        
If it doesn't pan out in T.O., there's always male-modelling...

Let’s take one man’s opinion (mine) of the ten best players drafted by Gord Ash in his 7 drafts as GM of the Jays, and lets see where these 10 players were in the off-season of 2000-2001.

1.Roy Halladay - Anyone besides me remember the not-so-quiet opinions expressed by many a short-sighted Jays fan that Roy Halladay was an over-hyped bust after posting the single worst season by a SP with at least 100 IP in major league history? How is it then that we NOW cite him as the best pick on the last dozen years?  Because we didn’t know then what we know now.  For a comparison from JP’s catalog, how about Shaun Marcum?  Am I saying that Marcum is going to be in the same universe as Roy Halladay?  HECK NO!  What I am saying is that we have only projections and guesses about Marcum now just as we did about Doc then.  How many of you looked at Halladay’s first two years and said “future dominate Cy Young winner!”

Put your hands down. Liars.

If I had really wanted to get you going, I could have cited Jesse Litsch instead; his ratios are much closer to early Halladay than Marcum’s are.

2. Alexis Rios - Rios was one year into a minor league career that was unimpressive early on.  He was labeled a budget pick and a lot of Jays fans were quick to assume he was a mediocre talent (like the never-cited-in-Gord’s-defense Miguel Negron).  His slow start tended to confirm those suspicions.  The obvious JP comparison here is, of course, Travis Snider.  I assume I do not have to explain to the informed Jays fan why this comparison does not reflect favorably on Gordo.

3. Vernon Wells - A prospect on the fringes of the majors, who had gotten a couple of cups of coffee and was still one full season away from a full time role - think Adam Lind.  Both had posted very impressive minor league seasons, both were being blocked by probable lesser talents....certainly Wells is a much better defender, but otherwise?  The story has not yet been finished.  Just as it was unwritten for Wells seven years ago.

4. Michael Young - Drafted in ‘97, not in the majors for good until 2001 and not an impressive offensive player until his age 26 season in 2003.  Compared to Aaron Hill, drafted in ‘03 and in the majors for good with OPS+ over 90 (as he has been his entire career) in 2005.  Again, a comparison that does not support the “Gord is better” argument.

5. Dustin McGowan - drafted in 2000, he did not break through to 2007. Take your pick of the Jay’s draft picks in 2007 and whatever you say, I will point out to you that you that it is just as likely that Kevin Ahrens lives up to the Chipper Jones comparisons as it was that young Dusty McGowan would turn out as he has.

6. Orlando Hudson - a ‘97 draftee who was still a pretty lightly regarded minor leaguer in the winter of 2000.  It would be 2003 before he was a full time major league player.  So, for comparisons, you might look to a player drafted in 2004, who has been ordinary offensively in the minors but not off the radar....say for instance, Curtis Thigpen.  Who, you may have noticed, had the words “Blue Jays” across his chest for a big chunk of this summer - and that as a catcher, a position that’s supposed to come slower than most.

7. Billy Koch - Had been with the Jays for two years, posting a lot of quality innings, looking like a long time closer (Ha!  So much for expectations!) - the easy comparison is Casey Janssen, though Janssen is not posting saves, but that’s as much circumstance as ability.  Koch had more physical ability, but results count.

8. Felipe Lopez - We are slipping now, out of the group of players you might want to build your case around if you are defending Gord Ash.  No one had higher hopes for Lopez than me, but the ‘98 first rounder was a guy who, despite obvious talent, did not break through to a full time role and an above average year until 2005.  To understand that time frame, consider that if Russ Adams doesn’t become a full timer until 2009 he would not be behind Lopez’s pace.  Again I disclaim, Adams does not  remotely have Lopez’s physical ability.  This only serves to illustrate that in November 2000 Lopez was still an unanswered question.  A walking pile of potential that might or might not ever live up to it.  Oh, and frankly, if 2005 is the best year Lopez ever has he won’t be listed in these discussions a decade from now any more than Adams will.

9. Reed Johnson - An unnoticed 17th rounder in 1999, of the sort that every team trips over once in a while, he was to play four more season in the minors, at the point in time we are considering, before becoming a quality 4th OF.  What will, for instance, Anthony Hatch be doing in 2012?  Can any of us say he will not be as good as Reed Johnson?

10. Casey Blake - Drafted in ‘96, lost on waivers already by the winter of 2000 and would fail with two more teams before finally showing something in Cleveland in his age 29 season after seven years in the minors.  What will such a future hold for Ryan Roberts?  Or Josh Banks?  Chip Cannon?  Zach Jackson?  Who knows?

In all this, I did not find a top 10 Ash player to compare to Dave Bush (Hendrickson, Ricky Romero (?), David Purcey (??), Jessie Listch, or the rest of the impressive 2007 draft class.

So, what have we learned here? In my not-so-humble opinion, we have learned that - unless you live in a delusional world where finding and nurturing a Roy Halladay is the bottom line for being a good drafting GM - that not only does Gord Ash’s draft record not shame JP’s, it is not even conclusively BETTER.

Now, go find something ELSE to whine about.

-- WillRain